A new United Nations report has placed Pakistan on the path to becoming the most populous Muslim country by 2048. With a current population exceeding 245 million, Pakistan is expected to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching its peak in the latter half of the century.

Population Growth Projections of Pakistan

The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report forecasts that Pakistan’s population will peak at around 404.68 million people in 2092. By 2048, Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia, reaching a population of 331.29 million. This significant demographic milestone underscores the rapid population increase within the country.

Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan experienced an average annual population growth rate of 2.40%, resulting in an annual increase of approximately 5.28 million people, pushing the population past 220 million. This rapid growth can be attributed to a high birth rate and limited use of birth control among Pakistani women.

Pakistan’s Socioeconomic Challenges

This substantial population surge presents numerous challenges for Pakistan’s infrastructure and resources. The increase is expected to strain water and sanitation systems, create millions of unemployed individuals, and overwhelm health and education systems. Pakistan’s growth rate, currently about 2.1 percent higher than other countries in the region, indicates the urgency of addressing these challenges.

Since becoming a sovereign state in 1947, Pakistan’s population has grown considerably, partly due to the migration of families and businesses. If current growth trends continue, Pakistan’s population is projected to double from its 2001 level within approximately 35 years. Although the growth rate is currently near 2%, it is expected to halve to less than 1% by 2050, by which time the population is predicted to exceed 300 million.

Global Demographic Trends

Globally, the population is nearing 8.2 billion as of mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before declining to about 10.2 billion. However, global population changes are uneven, with some regions experiencing rapid growth and others facing rapid aging.

The UN Sexual and Reproductive Health Agency (UNFPA) underscores the importance of reliable population data, highlighting the need to address the needs of marginalized populations. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed the importance of accurately counting everyone, noting that effective data systems can help accelerate progress for all.

The 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100. The WPP is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.

Fertility Rates and Aging Population

While global fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than in 1990, nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility” rates of fewer than 1.4 live births per woman.

By 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with a projected decline of 14 percent over the next thirty years. The average age of the global population is increasing, with the number of people aged 65 or older expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a significant increase from 17 percent in 1995.

Regional Growth Trends

While high-income countries experience slow growth or population decline, rapid population growth is projected in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This growth will increase demand for resources and exacerbate environmental impacts, especially in regions heavily affected by climate change.

In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, populations are also expected to increase through 2054, potentially peaking in the second half of the century.

Women’s Health and Rights in Pakistan

Secretary-General Guterres emphasized that women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are vital for sustainable development. Early pregnancies remain a challenge in low-income countries, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under 18 in 2024, including 340,000 children under 15. Investing in education and delaying marriage and childbearing can improve health outcomes and reduce the investments needed for sustainable development.

While Pakistan’s projected population growth presents numerous challenges, it also highlights the importance of strategic planning and investment in infrastructure, health, and education. By addressing these issues proactively, Pakistan can better manage its demographic changes and harness its human potential for sustainable development.

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