Qualification Scenarios for WTC Final After India's Defeat to Australia at MCG

South Africa’s dramatic two-wicket triumph against Pakistan in Centurion has confirmed their place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final, leaving other teams scrambling for the remaining slot. While Australia appear to be in pole position, India and Sri Lanka remain in the running. Here’s a simplified look at the possible qualification scenarios for each team vying for the WTC final.

Qualification Scenarios for WTC Final

Australia: One Step Away

Current Points Percentage: 61.46
Upcoming Matches: 1 home Test vs India, 2 away Tests in Sri Lanka

Australia’s path is the most straightforward. Winning their upcoming Test in Sydney against India will cement their place in the final, no matter what happens in Sri Lanka. Even if they lose both matches in Sri Lanka after a Sydney win, they will end with 57.02 points, which is enough to remain ahead of the other contenders.

A draw in Sydney keeps Australia’s hopes alive but puts them at risk. If they draw against India and lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, their points percentage will drop to 53.51, which opens the door for Sri Lanka to surpass them with a 2-0 series victory at home.

A loss in Sydney add pressure. In that case, Australia would need at least one win in Sri Lanka to secure their spot. A 1-1 series outcome in Sri Lanka would still see them finish at 57.02, edging out India’s potential maximum of 55.26.

India: Do or Die in Sydney

Current Points Percentage: 52.78
Remaining Fixture: 1 away Test vs Australia

For India, the task is simple but challenging—they must win the Sydney Test to remain in contention. A victory would push their percentage to 55.26, which would give them a chance to qualify if Australia achieve no more than one draw in Sri Lanka. In this scenario, Australia’s percentage would drop to 53.51, with Sri Lanka falling short at 48.72 in the event of a 1-0 series win against Australia.

However, a draw or defeat in Sydney will eliminate India. A draw would leave their percentage at 51.75, which isn’t enough to surpass either Australia or Sri Lanka in any realistic situation.

Sri Lanka: A Long Shot at Glory

Current Points Percentage: 45.45
Upcoming Matches: 2 home Tests vs Australia

Sri Lanka’s chances are slim but not impossible. Their only route to the final requires a Sydney Test draw between Australia and India, followed by a clean sweep of Australia in their two-match home series. Such a result would boost Sri Lanka to 53.85, narrowly beating Australia’s 53.51 and India’s 51.75.

If India win in Sydney, Sri Lanka are automatically knocked out. Similarly, Australia’s qualification is guaranteed if they secure a 3-1 result in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

Final Showdown Approaches

With South Africa already in the final, the fight for the second spot adds an extra layer of intrigue to the WTC. Australia’s position as frontrunners puts the spotlight on their matches, but India’s do-or-die game and Sri Lanka’s uphill climb ensure the race remains exciting till the very end.