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T20 World Cup 2024: Semifinal qualification scenario for Australia after losing to India

Australia’s T20 World Cup dreams hang by a thread after a crushing 24-run defeat to India in their final Super 8 match. The victory secures India’s place in the semi-finals but leaves Group 1 wide open for the remaining spot. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and even the defeated Australians still have a chance to join India in the next stage.

India put up a formidable total of 205/5 on the board, with Rohit Sharma leading the charge with a blistering 92 off just 41 balls. While the Australian bowlers were expensive, Mitchell Starc and Marcus Stoinis managed to pick up two wickets each. However, India’s bowlers, particularly Arshdeep Singh (3/37) and Kuldeep Yadav (2/24), stifled the Australian chase, restricting them to 181/7 in their allotted 20 overs.

So, can Australia still salvage their World Cup campaign? The answer depends entirely on the outcome of the final Super 8 match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh. A win for Afghanistan automatically qualifies them for the semi-finals. However, Bangladesh’s path is considerably more complex.

For Bangladesh to snatch the second semi-final spot, they need a mammoth victory against Afghanistan. Batting first, they need to win by a staggering margin of at least 62 runs. If they choose to bowl first, Bangladesh must restrict Afghanistan to a score below 110 in 12 overs or 130 in 12.2 overs, with the required score increasing with each additional over.

However, Australia can still find a way into the semi-finals if Bangladesh manage to win. The key lies in the margin of Bangladesh’s victory. If Bangladesh win by a smaller margin, the qualification scenario gets even more intriguing. In a scenario where Bangladesh win by exactly 61 runs, both teams will end up with the same net run rate. In such a case, Australia will qualify based on their head-to-head win over Bangladesh in the Super 8 stage.

The final match in Group 1 promises to be a high-stakes thriller. While Afghanistan will be aiming for a straightforward win, Bangladesh will need to pull off a near-miracle victory with a specific run rate requirement

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Zainab Shafiq

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