Homs on the brink: Thousands fleeing Syria’s third-largest city as rebel forces close in

A wave of panic has swept through Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, as tens of thousands of residents flee the face of an advancing rebel offensive. The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, warned residents with a declaration: “Your time has come.”

The rebel forces have launched their swiftest offensive since Syria’s civil war began 13 years ago, capturing the key cities of Aleppo and Hama. Now they are focusing on Homs, which connects Damascus to Assad’s Alawite stronghold on the Mediterranean. The city’s strategic importance has made its fall a critical concern for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Terrified residents jammed roads as the rebels advanced within 5 kilometers of Syria’s third-largest city. Fleeing Homs, their march southward has left government forces scrambling, exposing weaknesses within Syria’s military. Assad’s forces have struggled with low morale, corruption, and limited support from key allies, Russia and Iran.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed rebel gains but said independent verification is challenging. Russian warplanes recently bombed a bridge in Rastan to slow the rebel push but failed to halt their momentum.

Assad has threatened to quash the uprising, saying Western powers are interfering with Syria’s sovereignty. Analysts observe that the regime is on shaky ground, though. Hezbollah, a crucial ally of Assad, has for the most part retreated from the fight, and Moscow is otherwise engaged in its war in Ukraine. Turkey, which has been supporting some of the rebel groups, seems to have quietly approved the assault.

Fleeing Syria’s third-largest city, members of Assad’s Alawite community, a cornerstone of his support, fear for their lives. HTS leader al-Jawlani, seeking to reshape his public image, has pledged protection for minorities and distanced himself from ties to extremist groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda.

As the rebels continue their advance on Homs, the future of this city hangs in the balance, a grim indicator of the continued devastation that Syria’s prolonged civil war portends.

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